Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 18.670329 21.280183 24.098401 27.364687 31.042941 35.053844 39.755720
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 14.630711 18.111117 22.161895 27.212554 33.328485 40.481521 49.468258
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.813351 16.716621 21.480282 27.698843 35.577589 45.200439 57.815674
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 11.286296 15.428875 20.701827 27.869724 37.318902 49.304279 65.607794
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 9.967093 14.195430 19.779123 27.641633 38.368705 52.425100 72.161127
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 9.057770 13.387734 19.298520 27.889359 39.975871 56.279529 79.823511
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 8.501030 12.994331 19.314820 28.766830 42.436550 61.359724 89.379354
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 7.683514 12.133545 18.577286 28.481971 43.190331 64.062029 95.713510
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 6.665513 10.870780 17.136881 27.032363 42.113105 64.037510 98.067676
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 6.317013 10.598550 17.140461 27.718538 44.208004 68.689772 107.462762
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.016865 10.370935 17.184157 28.450231 46.390860 73.559600 117.409995
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.552638 9.832931 16.692253 28.290462 47.155900 76.291264 124.204167
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.043709 9.186069 15.990447 27.764273 47.338721 78.185084 129.894866
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.686530 8.767546 15.630896 27.769990 48.374148 81.467958 137.958298
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.443723 8.525316 15.542795 28.211428 50.133589 85.973761 148.187647
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.180340 8.221821 15.323000 28.403391 51.470313 89.840761 157.546314
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.873694 7.810603 14.879850 28.165222 52.038221 92.437154 164.886103
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.667944 7.570780 14.723090 28.419353 53.466590 96.536038 174.946361
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 3.567063 7.524025 14.913592 29.311758 56.072045 102.768883 188.966596
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 3.316466 7.160080 14.484342 29.022064 56.511488 105.236629 196.507840
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.941277 6.511880 13.465807 27.546566 54.669517 103.557579 196.582827
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.853582 6.448914 13.576506 28.244995 56.927806 109.333824 210.326452
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 2.775478 6.399280 13.708536 28.989701 59.308680 115.435811 224.932653